Abortion could push Texas women to the polls

Roe’s end could complicate November for Gov. Greg Abbott and Republicans in Texas.

Driving the news: Tom Bonier – a Democratic strategist and CEO of TargetSmart, a data and polling company – said a “Roe wave” of new female voters, sparked by the US Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, could dash hopes from the GOP of a midterm red wave in November.

  • “In my 28 years of analyzing elections, I have never seen anything like what has happened in the past two months in American politics: women are registering to vote in numbers that I’ve never seen,” Bonier wrote in a New York Times op-ed. .

By the numbers: More than 309,000 Texans registered for the first time or updated their voter registration in the roughly two months between the time the Dobbs ruling fell and the end of August., by the office of the Texas Secretary of State. Just under half of them were women, but voters are not required to disclose their gender.

  • Registration was relatively stable before the Dobbs decision, with total registration hovering around 17.2 million voters in Texas.
  • Women have outnumbered men in presidential and midterm elections in Texas since at least 2014, according to data compiled by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Catch up fast: Texas’ so-called “trigger law” has made abortion – including for victims of rape and incest – illegal in the state.

  • Over the weekend, Abbott tried to appease voters’ minds, saying that Texans who were raped could take Plan B of emergency contraception instead.
  • “We want to support these victims, but these victims can also access health care immediately, as well as report it,” Abbott told the Dallas Morning News and KXAS-TV.
  • Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s gubernatorial campaign quickly wrapped Abbott’s remarks in a 30-second ad on Tuesday, calling it a “cruel message” to victims.

To note : Emergency contraception is less effective for people over 165 pounds and must be taken within 24 hours of having sex to be most effective.

Enlarge: Both parties are trying to convince women voters in Texas.

Zoom out: The states with the largest increases in registered women after the Supreme Court ruling were Kansas, where abortion rights won a referendum last month, and Idaho, Bonier writes.

  • Major battleground states also saw strong increases, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, all of which are facing statewide races in which the fate of the access to abortion could be decided in November.
  • The New York Times found that in 10 states with voter registration data, the number of women registered to vote increased by about 35% after the ruling, compared to the month before a draft leaked. of opinion. Men increased by 9%.

The bottom line: Texas stays damn red.

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